CYD
China Yuchai International Limited
$26.02
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.9% below fair value
You pay
$26.02
Bear
$29.15
Fair
$33.31
Bull
$37.48
Bear
$29.15
+12.0%
$2.08 × 14x P/E
Fair
$33.31
+28.0%
$2.08 × 16x P/E
Bull
$37.48
+44.0%
$2.08 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.08, the base-case value is $33.31 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.20.
Warnings
The company pays out 99% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1496 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples