CYD
China Yuchai International Limited
$57.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.4% below fair value
You pay
$57.35
Bear
$129.28
Fair
$148.76
Bull
$165.84
Bear
$129.28
+125.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$148.76
+159.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$165.84
+189.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
4.3x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $148.76 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1472 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions