CXW
CoreCivic, Inc.
$32.93
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 103.3% above fair value
You pay
$32.93
Bear
$12.96
Fair
$16.20
Bull
$19.44
Bear
$12.96
-60.6%
$1.08 × 12x P/E
Fair
$16.20
-50.8%
$1.08 × 15x P/E
Bull
$19.44
-41.0%
$1.08 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$37.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.08, the base-case value is $16.20 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 163% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples