CXT
Crane NXT, Co.
$56.88
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.9% above fair value
You pay
$56.88
Bear
$38.28
Fair
$47.85
Bull
$57.42
Bear
$38.28
-32.7%
$3.19 × 12x P/E
Fair
$47.85
-15.9%
$3.19 × 15x P/E
Bull
$57.42
+0.9%
$3.19 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.19$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$69.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.19, the base-case value is $47.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples