CX
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.
$13.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.5% above fair value
You pay
$13.11
Bear
$8.77
Fair
$11.45
Bull
$13.84
Bear
$8.77
-33.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.45
-12.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$13.84
+5.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
19.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.4%
vs 6.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.73 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.45 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions