CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
$87.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 23.8% above fair value
You pay
$87.41
Bear
$38.01
Fair
$70.58
Bull
$106.37
Bear
$38.01
-56.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$70.58
-19.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$106.37
+21.7%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
42.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $112.33 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $112.33 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions