CWEN
Clearway Energy, Inc.
$30.43
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.6% below fair value
You pay
$30.43
Bear
$25.56
Fair
$31.24
Bull
$36.92
Bear
$25.56
-16.0%
$1.42 × 18x P/E
Fair
$31.24
+2.7%
$1.42 × 22x P/E
Bull
$36.92
+21.3%
$1.42 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
1.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$43.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.42, the base-case value is $31.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $88.47.
Warnings
The company pays out 131% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $88.47 (above our primary estimate by 183%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples