CWAN
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.
$24.56
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.3% above fair value
You pay
$24.56
Bear
$8.11
Fair
$20.75
Bull
$32.02
Bear
$8.11
-67.0%
18% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$20.75
-15.5%
29% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$32.02
+30.4%
35% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
29.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (29%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
56%
Implied Market Multiple
11.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$25.97
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Projecting 29% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 27% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $20.75 per share.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep