CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
$494.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 23.2% above fair value
You pay
$494.53
Bear
$261.36
Fair
$401.42
Bull
$550.98
Bear
$261.36
-47.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$401.42
-18.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$550.98
+11.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
33.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.9%
vs 13.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$710.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $401.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $710.83 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions