CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
$731.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.8% above fair value
You pay
$731.24
Bear
$300.09
Fair
$451.91
Bull
$611.19
Bear
$300.09
-59.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$451.91
-38.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$611.19
-16.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
52.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $741.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $451.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $741.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions