CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
$566.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.9% above fair value
You pay
$566.75
Bear
$261.71
Fair
$402.35
Bull
$552.64
Bear
$261.71
-53.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$402.35
-29.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$552.64
-2.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
38.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.6%
vs 13.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$792.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $402.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $792.80 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions