CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
$740.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.7% above fair value
You pay
$740.06
Bear
$305.82
Fair
$460.53
Bull
$622.86
Bear
$305.82
-58.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$460.53
-37.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$622.86
-15.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
52.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.9%
vs 12.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $775.50 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $460.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $775.50 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions