CVX
Chevron Corporation
$194.42
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.2% above fair value
You pay
$194.42
Bear
$83.58
Fair
$145.92
Bull
$221.19
Bear
$83.58
-57.0%
FCF $14103M × 12x
Fair
$145.92
-24.9%
FCF $16592M × 16x
Bull
$221.19
+13.8%
FCF $19081M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $206.93 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $145.92 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $206.93 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential