CVX
Chevron Corporation
$214.01
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 79.5% above fair value
You pay
$214.01
Bear
$68.70
Fair
$119.26
Bull
$180.28
Bear
$68.70
-67.9%
FCF $14757M × 12x
Fair
$119.26
-44.3%
FCF $17362M × 16x
Bull
$180.28
-15.8%
FCF $19966M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$216.92
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $119.26 per share. Range: $68.70 (bear) to $180.28 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $216.92 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential