CVX
Chevron Corporation
$232.01
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 88.4% above fair value
You pay
$232.01
Bear
$72.19
Fair
$123.15
Bull
$184.67
Bear
$72.19
-68.9%
FCF $14757M × 12x
Fair
$123.15
-46.9%
FCF $17362M × 16x
Bull
$184.67
-20.4%
FCF $19966M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$214.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $123.15 per share. Range: $72.19 (bear) to $184.67 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $214.08 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential