CVLT
Commvault Systems, Inc.
$107.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.1% above fair value
You pay
$107.25
Bear
$70.82
Fair
$96.50
Bull
$121.93
Bear
$70.82
-34.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$96.50
-10.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$121.93
+13.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
30.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.64 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.50 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 175% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $141.64 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions