CVLT
Commvault Systems, Inc.
$156.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 99.4% above fair value
You pay
$156.19
Bear
$57.50
Fair
$78.34
Bull
$98.98
Bear
$57.50
-63.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$78.34
-49.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$98.98
-36.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
44.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.5%
vs 10.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$157.45
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $78.34 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 175% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $157.45 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions