CVLT
Commvault Systems, Inc.
$142.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 44.3% above fair value
You pay
$142.31
Bear
$72.41
Fair
$98.66
Bull
$124.64
Bear
$72.41
-49.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$98.66
-30.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$124.64
-12.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
40.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.5%
vs 10.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $149.58 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.66 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 175% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $149.58 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions