CVGW
Calavo Growers, Inc.
$26.09
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 135.0% above fair value
You pay
$26.09
Bear
$8.88
Fair
$11.10
Bull
$13.32
Bear
$8.88
-66.0%
$1.11 × 8x P/E
Fair
$11.10
-57.5%
$1.11 × 10x P/E
Bull
$13.32
-48.9%
$1.11 × 12x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
10.0x
1.11$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$32.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.11, the base-case value is $11.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples