CVGW
Calavo Growers, Inc.
$26.09
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.3% above fair value
You pay
$26.09
Bear
$17.95
Fair
$22.44
Bull
$26.93
Bear
$17.95
-31.2%
$2.13 × 8x P/E
Fair
$22.44
-14.0%
$2.13 × 10x P/E
Bull
$26.93
+3.2%
$2.13 × 12x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.44 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples