CVGW Calavo Growers, Inc.
$26.09
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 16.3% above fair value

You pay $26.09
Bear $17.95
Fair $22.44
Bull $26.93
Bear $17.95 -31.2% $2.13 × 8x P/E
Fair $22.44 -14.0% $2.13 × 10x P/E
Bull $26.93 +3.2% $2.13 × 12x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.44 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples