CVGW Calavo Growers, Inc.
$26.45
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 23.0% below fair value

You pay $26.45
Bear $28.30
Fair $34.37
Bull $40.43
Bear $28.30 +7.0% $2.13 × 14x P/E
Fair $34.37 +29.9% $2.13 × 17x P/E
Bull $40.43 +52.9% $2.13 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.37 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples