CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc.
$32.88
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.2% above fair value
You pay
$32.88
Bear
$9.51
Fair
$18.05
Bull
$28.36
Bear
$9.51
-71.1%
FCF $2308M × 12x
Fair
$18.05
-45.1%
FCF $2715M × 16x
Bull
$28.36
-13.8%
FCF $3122M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$36.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $18.05 per share. Range: $9.51 (bear) to $28.36 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -71%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7117 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential