CURB
Curbline Properties Corp.
$28.86
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.4% above fair value
You pay
$28.86
Bear
$13.43
Fair
$16.54
Bull
$19.66
Bear
$13.43
-53.5%
$0.93 FFO × 16x
Fair
$16.54
-42.7%
$0.93 FFO × 20x
Bull
$19.66
-31.9%
$0.93 FFO × 23x
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.93) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
31.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$34.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
At $0.93 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $16.54 per share. Dividend yield: 2.4%. DDM cross-check: $13.05.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.40 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify