CURB
Curbline Properties Corp.
$28.32
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.9% above fair value
You pay
$28.32
Bear
$16.53
Fair
$20.40
Bull
$24.27
Bear
$16.53
-41.6%
$1.06 FFO × 16x
Fair
$20.40
-28.0%
$1.06 FFO × 20x
Bull
$24.27
-14.3%
$1.06 FFO × 23x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.06) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
26.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.40 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.86 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify