CURB
Curbline Properties Corp.
$29.68
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 72.8% above fair value
You pay
$29.68
Bear
$13.93
Fair
$17.18
Bull
$20.42
Bear
$13.93
-53.1%
$0.98 FFO × 16x
Fair
$17.18
-42.1%
$0.98 FFO × 20x
Bull
$20.42
-31.2%
$0.98 FFO × 23x
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.98) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
30.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$34.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
At $0.98 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.18 per share. Dividend yield: 2.3%. DDM cross-check: $12.86.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.86 (25% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.75 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify