CUK
Carnival Corporation & plc
$27.47
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.6% below fair value
You pay
$27.47
Bear
$36.36
Fair
$45.45
Bull
$54.54
Bear
$36.36
+32.4%
$2.02 × 18x P/E
Fair
$45.45
+65.5%
$2.02 × 22x P/E
Bull
$54.54
+98.5%
$2.02 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
2.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.02, the base-case value is $45.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $76.16.
Warnings
The company pays out 82% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $76.16 (above our primary estimate by 68%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples