CTVA
Corteva, Inc.
$12.45
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 452.7% above fair value
You pay
$12.45
Bear
$1.66
Fair
$2.25
Bull
$2.85
Bear
$1.66
-86.7%
$0.24 × 7x
Fair
$2.25
-81.9%
$0.24 × 10x
Bull
$2.85
-77.1%
$0.24 × 12x
Adjust Assumptions
9.5x
0.24$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.24)
Implied Market Multiple
52.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$38.64
Divergence from AlphaVal
94%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.24 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $2.25 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.5x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.64 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing