CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
$20.41
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 406.0% above fair value
You pay
$20.41
Bear
$3.53
Fair
$4.03
Bull
$4.54
Bear
$3.53
-82.7%
$0.25 × 14x P/E
Fair
$4.03
-80.2%
$0.25 × 16x P/E
Bull
$4.54
-77.8%
$0.25 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.1x
0.25$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
81.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
88%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.25, the base-case value is $4.03 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 53% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples