CTRE
CareTrust REIT, Inc.
$40.83
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.1% below fair value
You pay
$40.83
Bear
$40.93
Fair
$50.49
Bull
$60.06
Bear
$40.93
+0.3%
$1.75 FFO × 18x
Fair
$50.49
+23.7%
$1.75 FFO × 23x
Bull
$60.06
+47.1%
$1.75 FFO × 29x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.75) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.25 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.49 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $79.65 (52% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify