AlphaMadera

CTRE CareTrust REIT, Inc.

$39.16

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 25.5% below fair value

You pay $39.16

Bear $42.62

Fair $52.57

Bull $62.53

Bear $42.62 +8.8% $1.75 FFO × 18x

Fair $52.57 +34.3% $1.75 FFO × 23x

Bull $62.53 +59.7% $1.75 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

23.4x

FFO per Share

1.75$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.75) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 22.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (19 analysts) $44.67

Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Summary

At $1.75 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $52.57 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%. DDM cross-check: $79.65.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $79.65 (52% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify