CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc.
$32.56
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 56.5% above fair value
You pay
$32.56
Bear
$8.08
Fair
$20.80
Bull
$37.77
Bear
$8.08
-75.2%
FCF $1253M × 8x
Fair
$20.80
-36.1%
FCF $1790M × 11x
Bull
$37.77
+16.0%
FCF $2326M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (55 analysts)
$42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $20.80 per share. Range: $8.08 (bear) to $37.77 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -75%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential