CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc.
$32.56
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.9% above fair value
You pay
$32.56
Bear
$8.95
Fair
$23.96
Bull
$43.96
Bear
$8.95
-72.5%
FCF $1144M × 8x
Fair
$23.96
-26.4%
FCF $1634M × 11x
Bull
$43.96
+35.0%
FCF $2124M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.96 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -79%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential