CTOS
Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
$9.23
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.9% above fair value
You pay
$9.23
Bear
$5.60
Fair
$7.00
Bull
$8.40
Bear
$5.60
-39.3%
$0.27 × 18x P/E
Fair
$7.00
-24.2%
$0.27 × 22x P/E
Bull
$8.40
-9.0%
$0.27 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples