CTMX
CytomX Therapeutics, Inc.
$2.56
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.1% below fair value
You pay
$2.56
Bear
$1.67
Fair
$3.24
Bull
$5.23
Bear
$1.67
-34.7%
15% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$3.24
+26.7%
26% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$5.23
+104.3%
33% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
26.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (26%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
69%
Implied Market Multiple
5.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$8.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Projecting 26% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $3.24 per share.
Warnings
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 100% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 69% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep