CTLT
Catalent, Inc.
$63.48
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 113.0% above fair value
You pay
$63.48
Bear
$25.54
Fair
$29.80
Bull
$34.06
Bear
$25.54
-59.8%
$2.13 × 12x P/E
Fair
$29.80
-53.1%
$2.13 × 14x P/E
Bull
$34.06
-46.4%
$2.13 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.8x
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.13, the base-case value is $29.80 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples