CTLP
Cantaloupe, Inc.
$11.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 373.0% above fair value
You pay
$11.20
Bear
$1.58
Fair
$2.37
Bull
$3.38
Bear
$1.58
-85.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.37
-78.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$3.38
-69.8%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
2487.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions