CTLP
Cantaloupe, Inc.
$11.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 149.4% above fair value
You pay
$11.20
Bear
$2.63
Fair
$4.49
Bull
$6.72
Bear
$2.63
-76.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.49
-59.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$6.72
-40.0%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
98.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
30.2%
vs 17.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions