CSW
CSW Industrials, Inc.
$278.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.6% below fair value
You pay
$278.00
Bear
$200.79
Fair
$337.18
Bull
$500.14
Bear
$200.79
-27.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$337.18
+21.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$500.14
+79.9%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
31.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $322.20 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $337.18 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions