CSW
CSW Industrials, Inc.
$287.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 91.0% above fair value
You pay
$287.59
Bear
$90.70
Fair
$150.56
Bull
$211.70
Bear
$90.70
-68.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$150.56
-47.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$211.70
-26.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
40.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.3%
vs 11.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$299.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $150.56 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $299.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions