CSTL
Castle Biosciences, Inc.
$33.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 131.1% above fair value
You pay
$33.20
Bear
$12.21
Fair
$14.37
Bull
$16.80
Bear
$12.21
-63.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$14.37
-56.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$16.80
-49.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
139.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
35.0%
vs 15.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $14.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions