CSTL
Castle Biosciences, Inc.
$20.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.0% below fair value
You pay
$20.15
Bear
$17.97
Fair
$20.35
Bull
$22.90
Bear
$17.97
-10.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$20.35
+1.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.90
+13.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
65.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.80 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.80 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions