CSL
Carlisle Companies Incorporated
$325.98
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.8% above fair value
You pay
$325.98
Bear
$239.68
Fair
$308.16
Bull
$376.64
Bear
$239.68
-26.5%
$17.12 × 14x
Fair
$308.16
-5.5%
$17.12 × 18x
Bull
$376.64
+15.5%
$17.12 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
17.12$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($17.12)
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$395.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $17.12 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $308.16 per share.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing