CSL
Carlisle Companies Incorporated
$333.80
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.1% above fair value
You pay
$333.80
Bear
$222.69
Fair
$300.51
Bull
$378.33
Bear
$222.69
-33.3%
$17.12 × 14x + net cash
Fair
$300.51
-10.0%
$17.12 × 18x + net cash
Bull
$378.33
+13.3%
$17.12 × 22x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($17.12)
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $408.75 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $300.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $408.75 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing