CSGS
CSG Systems International, Inc.
$80.69
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.4% above fair value
You pay
$80.69
Bear
$47.11
Fair
$56.28
Bull
$65.45
Bear
$47.11
-41.6%
$2.24 × 18x P/E
Fair
$56.28
-30.3%
$2.24 × 22x P/E
Bull
$65.45
-18.9%
$2.24 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.70 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $80.70 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples