CSGS CSG Systems International, Inc.
$80.69
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 43.4% above fair value

You pay $80.69
Bear $47.11
Fair $56.28
Bull $65.45
Bear $47.11 -41.6% $2.24 × 18x P/E
Fair $56.28 -30.3% $2.24 × 22x P/E
Bull $65.45 -18.9% $2.24 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 36.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.70 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.28 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $80.70 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples