CSGS
CSG Systems International, Inc.
$80.69
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 89.5% above fair value
You pay
$80.69
Bear
$35.64
Fair
$42.57
Bull
$49.50
Bear
$35.64
-55.8%
$1.98 × 18x P/E
Fair
$42.57
-47.2%
$1.98 × 22x P/E
Bull
$49.50
-38.7%
$1.98 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
1.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$80.70
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.98, the base-case value is $42.57 per share. DDM cross-check: $46.68.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $80.70 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples