CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
$663.46
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 116.8% above fair value
You pay
$663.46
Bear
$163.04
Fair
$305.99
Bull
$480.12
Bear
$163.04
-75.4%
15% rev growth, 19% terminal margin
Fair
$305.99
-53.9%
25% rev growth, 25% terminal margin
Bull
$480.12
-27.6%
32% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (25%) × margin expansion to 25%
Terminal Value % of EV
55%
Implied Market Multiple
34.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $559.69 from 65 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $305.99 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 23% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Wall Street's average price target is $559.69 (from 65 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep