CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
$278.86
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 485.0% above fair value
You pay
$278.86
Bear
$24.19
Fair
$47.67
Bull
$76.30
Bear
$24.19
-91.3%
16% rev growth, 19% terminal margin
Fair
$47.67
-82.9%
27% rev growth, 25% terminal margin
Bull
$76.30
-72.6%
35% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
27.0%
25.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (27%) × margin expansion to 25%
Terminal Value % of EV
56%
Implied Market Multiple
58.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (67 analysts)
$233.92
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Projecting 27% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 28% to 25% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $47.67 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 23% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Wall Street's average price target is $233.92 (from 67 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep