CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
$191.12
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 112.7% above fair value
You pay
$191.12
Bear
$46.68
Fair
$89.85
Bull
$143.56
Bear
$46.68
-75.6%
16% rev growth, 19% terminal margin
Fair
$89.85
-53.0%
26% rev growth, 25% terminal margin
Bull
$143.56
-24.9%
34% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (26%) × margin expansion to 25%
Terminal Value % of EV
56%
Implied Market Multiple
39.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.51 from 66 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.85 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 23% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Wall Street's average price target is $173.51 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep