CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
$181.80
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 93.4% above fair value
You pay
$181.80
Bear
$48.83
Fair
$93.99
Bull
$150.16
Bear
$48.83
-73.1%
16% rev growth, 19% terminal margin
Fair
$93.99
-48.3%
26% rev growth, 25% terminal margin
Bull
$150.16
-17.4%
34% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (26%) × margin expansion to 25%
Terminal Value % of EV
56%
Implied Market Multiple
37.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $185.33 from 66 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.99 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 23% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Wall Street's average price target is $185.33 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep