CROX
Crocs, Inc.
$110.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.0% below fair value
You pay
$110.44
Bear
$109.17
Fair
$131.53
Bull
$150.90
Bear
$109.17
-1.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$131.53
+19.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$150.90
+36.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $106.88 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $131.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $106.88 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions