CROX
Crocs, Inc.
$114.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.8% below fair value
You pay
$114.98
Bear
$98.41
Fair
$119.55
Bull
$137.86
Bear
$98.41
-14.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$119.55
+4.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$137.86
+19.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.9%
vs 5.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$136.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $119.55 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions