CROX
Crocs, Inc.
$134.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.0% below fair value
You pay
$134.72
Bear
$115.29
Fair
$138.90
Bull
$159.35
Bear
$115.29
-14.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$138.90
+3.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$159.35
+18.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.8%
vs 5.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $131.44 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.90 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions