CRON
Cronos Group Inc.
$2.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.0% below fair value
You pay
$2.74
Bear
$2.79
Fair
$2.79
Bull
$2.84
Bear
$2.79
+2.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.79
+2.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$2.84
+3.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $2.30 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.79 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 14% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $2.30 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions