CRON
Cronos Group Inc.
$3.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.6% below fair value
You pay
$3.21
Bear
$3.01
Fair
$3.33
Bull
$3.65
Bear
$3.01
-6.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.33
+3.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$3.65
+13.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
21.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.9%
vs 11.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$3.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.33 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 18% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions