CRL
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc.
$304.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 201.1% above fair value
You pay
$302.17
Bear
$76.11
Fair
$100.36
Bull
$121.63
Bear
$76.11
-74.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$100.36
-66.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$121.63
-59.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
31.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.1%
vs 5.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$305.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $100.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $305.50 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions