CRL
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc.
$218.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 108.0% above fair value
You pay
$218.70
Bear
$105.16
Fair
$105.16
Bull
$119.89
Bear
$105.16
-51.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$105.16
-51.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$119.89
-45.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
28.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.8%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $230.78 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $230.78 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions