CRCL
Circle Internet Group
$102.05
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3327.9% above fair value
Bear
$2.98
-97.1%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$2.98
-97.1%
ROTCE -2.6% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$2.98
-97.1%
ROTCE -3.0% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
-2.6%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-2.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
10.28x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$93.36
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
With ROTCE of -2.6% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $9.92 tangible book, implying $2.98 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-2.6%) is below the minimum investors require (6.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $93.36 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly