CRCL
Circle Internet Group
$113.12
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.4% above fair value
You pay
$113.12
Bear
$48.47
Fair
$69.23
Bull
$89.99
Bear
$48.47
-57.2%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$69.23
-38.8%
ROTCE -2.6% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$89.99
-20.4%
ROTCE -3.0% → 0.30x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-2.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
11.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $124.63 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.23 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-2.6%) is below the minimum investors require (6.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $124.63 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly