CRC
California Resources Corp
$52.23
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.0% below fair value
You pay
$52.23
Bear
$25.26
Fair
$62.94
Bull
$113.19
Bear
$25.26
-51.6%
FCF $434M × 8x
Fair
$62.94
+20.5%
FCF $620M × 11x
Bull
$113.19
+116.7%
FCF $806M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$79.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
21%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $62.94 per share. Range: $25.26 (bear) to $113.19 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential