CRC
California Resources Corp
$52.47
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.1% below fair value
You pay
$52.47
Bear
$22.82
Fair
$59.71
Bull
$108.90
Bear
$22.82
-56.5%
FCF $380M × 8x
Fair
$59.71
+13.8%
FCF $543M × 11x
Bull
$108.90
+107.5%
FCF $706M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.71 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential