CRC
California Resources Corp
$53.54
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.9% below fair value
You pay
$53.54
Bear
$25.25
Fair
$62.93
Bull
$113.16
Bear
$25.25
-52.8%
FCF $434M × 8x
Fair
$62.93
+17.5%
FCF $620M × 11x
Bull
$113.16
+111.4%
FCF $806M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$76.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $62.93 per share. Range: $25.25 (bear) to $113.16 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential