CRC
California Resources Corporation
$62.04
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.3% above fair value
You pay
$62.04
Bear
$22.09
Fair
$57.80
Bull
$105.40
Bear
$22.09
-64.4%
FCF $380M × 8x
Fair
$57.80
-6.8%
FCF $543M × 11x
Bull
$105.40
+69.9%
FCF $706M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.83 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.80 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential