CR
Crane Company
$204.75
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.1% above fair value
You pay
$204.75
Bear
$102.31
Fair
$127.89
Bull
$153.47
Bear
$102.31
-50.0%
$6.26 × 16x P/E
Fair
$127.89
-37.5%
$6.26 × 20x P/E
Bull
$153.47
-25.0%
$6.26 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
20.4x
6.26$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$245.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.26, the base-case value is $127.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $245.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples