CR
Crane Company
$179.75
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.2% above fair value
You pay
$179.75
Bear
$123.70
Fair
$154.63
Bull
$185.56
Bear
$123.70
-31.2%
$6.46 × 16x P/E
Fair
$154.63
-14.0%
$6.46 × 20x P/E
Bull
$185.56
+3.2%
$6.46 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $222.67 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $154.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $222.67 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples