CR
Crane Company
$226.34
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.4% above fair value
You pay
$226.34
Bear
$128.04
Fair
$160.04
Bull
$192.05
Bear
$128.04
-43.4%
$6.46 × 16x P/E
Fair
$160.04
-29.3%
$6.46 × 20x P/E
Bull
$192.05
-15.1%
$6.46 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $244.33 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $160.04 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $244.33 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples