CQP Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.
$63.39
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 37.4% below fair value

You pay $63.39
Bear $81.00
Fair $101.25
Bull $121.50
Bear $81.00 +27.8% $6.17 × 14x P/E
Fair $101.25 +59.7% $6.17 × 18x P/E
Bull $121.50 +91.7% $6.17 × 21x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.25 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $47.96 (below our primary estimate by 56%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples