CQP
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.
$65.64
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.2% below fair value
You pay
$65.64
Bear
$79.80
Fair
$99.75
Bull
$119.70
Bear
$79.80
+21.6%
$6.17 × 14x P/E
Fair
$99.75
+52.0%
$6.17 × 18x P/E
Bull
$119.70
+82.4%
$6.17 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.75 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $47.96 (below our primary estimate by 56%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 59% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples