CQP
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.
$66.15
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.9% below fair value
You pay
$66.15
Bear
$88.00
Fair
$110.00
Bull
$132.00
Bear
$88.00
+33.0%
$6.17 × 14x P/E
Fair
$110.00
+66.3%
$6.17 × 18x P/E
Bull
$132.00
+99.6%
$6.17 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.8x
6.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$65.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.17, the base-case value is $110.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $65.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples