CPT
Camden Property Trust
$97.85
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.4% below fair value
You pay
$97.85
Bear
$166.38
Fair
$197.33
Bull
$228.29
Bear
$166.38
+70.0%
$9.90 FFO × 21x
Fair
$197.33
+101.7%
$9.90 FFO × 25x
Bull
$228.29
+133.3%
$9.90 FFO × 29x
Adjust Assumptions
24.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.90) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
9.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$110.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
At $9.90 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $197.33 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%. DDM cross-check: $87.02.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $87.02 (56% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $110.94 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify