CPT
Camden Property Trust
$107.47
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.3% below fair value
You pay
$107.47
Bear
$149.34
Fair
$177.06
Bull
$204.78
Bear
$149.34
+39.0%
$9.90 FFO × 21x
Fair
$177.06
+64.8%
$9.90 FFO × 25x
Bull
$204.78
+90.6%
$9.90 FFO × 29x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.90) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $110.23 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $177.06 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $114.92 (44% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $110.23 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 87% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify