CPT Camden Property Trust
$111.87
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 35.9% below fair value

You pay $111.87
Bear $147.08
Fair $174.41
Bull $201.76
Bear $147.08 +31.5% $9.90 FFO × 21x
Fair $174.41 +55.9% $9.90 FFO × 25x
Bull $201.76 +80.3% $9.90 FFO × 29x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.90) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $112.68 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $174.41 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $98.81 (51% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $112.68 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify