CPT
Camden Property Trust
$105.69
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.4% below fair value
You pay
$105.69
Bear
$169.39
Fair
$200.87
Bull
$232.36
Bear
$169.39
+60.3%
$9.90 FFO × 21x
Fair
$200.87
+90.1%
$9.90 FFO × 25x
Bull
$232.36
+119.8%
$9.90 FFO × 29x
Adjust Assumptions
24.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.90) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$114.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
At $9.90 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $200.87 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $98.81.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $98.81 (51% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $114.10 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 76% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify