CPRX
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$31.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.0% below fair value
You pay
$31.49
Bear
$37.87
Fair
$57.25
Bull
$79.22
Bear
$37.87
+20.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$57.25
+81.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$79.22
+151.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
16.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.5%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$31.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $57.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.75 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions