CPRX
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$31.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.5% below fair value
You pay
$31.26
Bear
$32.45
Fair
$47.03
Bull
$62.99
Bear
$32.45
+3.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$47.03
+50.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.99
+101.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $47.03 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions