CPRT
Copart, Inc.
$30.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.3% above fair value
You pay
$30.79
Bear
$25.33
Fair
$28.69
Bull
$31.61
Bear
$25.33
-17.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.69
-6.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$31.61
+2.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 5.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.67 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $39.67 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions