CPRT
Copart, Inc.
$26.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.0% above fair value
You pay
$26.37
Bear
$22.20
Fair
$25.11
Bull
$27.64
Bear
$22.20
-15.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$25.11
-4.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$27.64
+4.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.1%
vs 5.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$37.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $37.33 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions