CPRT
Copart, Inc.
$33.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.3% above fair value
You pay
$33.79
Bear
$26.67
Fair
$31.48
Bull
$35.85
Bear
$26.67
-21.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.48
-6.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$35.85
+6.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
23.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions