CPRI
Capri Holdings Limited
$12.71
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.2% above fair value
You pay
$12.71
Bear
$10.78
Fair
$12.32
Bull
$13.86
Bear
$10.78
-15.2%
$0.77 × 14x P/E
Fair
$12.32
-3.1%
$0.77 × 16x P/E
Bull
$13.86
+9.0%
$0.77 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.77$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (54 analysts)
$20.57
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.77, the base-case value is $12.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $20.57 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 55% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples