CPNG
Coupang, Inc.
$16.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.2% below fair value
You pay
$16.12
Bear
$11.27
Fair
$18.58
Bull
$27.35
Bear
$11.27
-30.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.58
+15.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$27.35
+69.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
39.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.20 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $26.20 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions