CPNG
Coupang, Inc.
$15.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 101.7% above fair value
You pay
$15.12
Bear
$5.07
Fair
$7.50
Bull
$10.24
Bear
$5.07
-66.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.50
-50.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$10.24
-32.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
70.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.7%
vs 15.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$25.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.50 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 228% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.25 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions