CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
$126.52
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 19.3% above fair value

You pay $126.52
Bear $92.76
Fair $106.02
Bull $119.26
Bear $92.76 -26.7% $6.01 × 14x P/E
Fair $106.02 -16.2% $6.01 × 16x P/E
Bull $119.26 -5.7% $6.01 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $142.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.02 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $353.28 (above our primary estimate by 264%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $142.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples