CPK
Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
$131.53
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.5% above fair value
You pay
$131.53
Bear
$84.33
Fair
$96.37
Bull
$108.42
Bear
$84.33
-35.9%
$5.97 × 14x P/E
Fair
$96.37
-26.7%
$5.97 × 16x P/E
Bull
$108.42
-17.6%
$5.97 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.1x
5.97$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$140.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.97, the base-case value is $96.37 per share. DDM cross-check: $288.16.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $288.16 (above our primary estimate by 199%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples