CPK
Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
$126.52
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.3% above fair value
You pay
$126.52
Bear
$92.76
Fair
$106.02
Bull
$119.26
Bear
$92.76
-26.7%
$6.01 × 14x P/E
Fair
$106.02
-16.2%
$6.01 × 16x P/E
Bull
$119.26
-5.7%
$6.01 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $142.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.02 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $353.28 (above our primary estimate by 264%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $142.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples