CPB
Campbell Soup Company
$22.81
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.2% below fair value
You pay
$22.81
Bear
$36.96
Fair
$44.88
Bull
$52.80
Bear
$36.96
+62.0%
$3.11 × 14x P/E
Fair
$44.88
+96.8%
$3.11 × 17x P/E
Bull
$52.80
+131.5%
$3.11 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.67 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.88 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 55%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $22.71 (below our primary estimate by 57%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $20.67 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 156% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples