CPB Campbell Soup Company
$20.58
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 55.2% below fair value

You pay $20.58
Bear $37.86
Fair $45.96
Bull $54.08
Bear $37.86 +83.9% $3.11 × 14x P/E
Fair $45.96 +123.3% $3.11 × 17x P/E
Bull $54.08 +162.8% $3.11 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.00 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.96 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 55%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $22.71 (below our primary estimate by 57%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 112% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples