CPAY
Corpay, Inc.
$397.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.3% below fair value
You pay
$397.92
Bear
$424.09
Fair
$655.05
Bull
$906.44
Bear
$424.09
+6.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$655.05
+64.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$906.44
+127.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.6%
vs 14.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$456.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $655.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $456.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions