CPAY
Corpay, Inc.
$347.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.2% below fair value
You pay
$347.90
Bear
$317.19
Fair
$491.57
Bull
$681.35
Bear
$317.19
-8.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$491.57
+41.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$681.35
+95.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $377.88 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $491.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $377.88 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions