CPAY
Corpay, Inc.
$365.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.9% below fair value
You pay
$365.79
Bear
$318.48
Fair
$493.57
Bull
$684.13
Bear
$318.48
-12.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$493.57
+34.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$684.13
+87.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
20.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.3%
vs 14.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $385.89 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $493.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $385.89 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions