CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.
$91.40
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.5% above fair value
You pay
$91.40
Bear
$57.80
Fair
$72.24
Bull
$86.69
Bear
$57.80
-36.8%
$3.37 × 13x P/E
Fair
$72.24
-21.0%
$3.37 × 17x P/E
Bull
$86.69
-5.1%
$3.37 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $108.80 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.24 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $13.04 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $108.80 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7085 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples