CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.
$86.26
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.7% above fair value
You pay
$86.26
Bear
$54.48
Fair
$68.09
Bull
$81.71
Bear
$54.48
-36.8%
$3.45 × 13x P/E
Fair
$68.09
-21.1%
$3.45 × 17x P/E
Bull
$81.71
-5.3%
$3.45 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.00 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.09 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $13.59 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $92.00 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7245 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples