COTY
Coty Inc.
$3.23
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 120.2% above fair value
You pay
$3.23
Bear
$1.21
Fair
$1.47
Bull
$1.73
Bear
$1.21
-62.6%
$0.09 × 14x P/E
Fair
$1.47
-54.6%
$0.09 × 17x P/E
Bull
$1.73
-46.6%
$0.09 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.09$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
37.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$2.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $2.86 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples