CORT
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated
$79.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 62.4% above fair value
You pay
$79.91
Bear
$28.62
Fair
$49.20
Bull
$75.32
Bear
$28.62
-64.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$49.20
-38.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$75.32
-5.7%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
104.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.20 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 85% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $83.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions