CORT
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated
$114.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 204.0% above fair value
You pay
$114.55
Bear
$21.92
Fair
$37.68
Bull
$57.68
Bear
$21.92
-80.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$37.68
-67.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$57.68
-49.6%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
153.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
36.3%
vs 20.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$125.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $37.68 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 85% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $125.33 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions