COR
Cencora, Inc.
$340.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 146.9% above fair value
You pay
$340.43
Bear
$110.29
Fair
$137.87
Bull
$165.44
Bear
$110.29
-67.6%
$7.96 × 14x P/E
Fair
$137.87
-59.5%
$7.96 × 17x P/E
Bull
$165.44
-51.4%
$7.96 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.3x
7.96$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
42.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$357.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
61%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.96, the base-case value is $137.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $357.13 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples