COP
ConocoPhillips
$109.04
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.8% below fair value
You pay
$109.04
Bear
$63.48
Fair
$137.69
Bull
$236.65
Bear
$63.48
-41.8%
FCF $11741M × 8x
Fair
$137.69
+26.3%
FCF $16773M × 11x
Bull
$236.65
+117.0%
FCF $21805M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $137.25 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $137.69 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential