COP
ConocoPhillips
$135.90
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.2% below fair value
You pay
$135.90
Bear
$67.16
Fair
$144.96
Bull
$248.68
Bear
$67.16
-50.6%
FCF $12286M × 8x
Fair
$144.96
+6.7%
FCF $17551M × 11x
Bull
$248.68
+83.0%
FCF $22817M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$150.82
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $144.96 per share. Range: $67.16 (bear) to $248.68 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential