COP
ConocoPhillips
$120.46
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.2% below fair value
You pay
$120.46
Bear
$61.84
Fair
$134.13
Bull
$230.53
Bear
$61.84
-48.7%
FCF $11741M × 8x
Fair
$134.13
+11.4%
FCF $16773M × 11x
Bull
$230.53
+91.4%
FCF $21805M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $127.08 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $134.13 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential