COP
ConocoPhillips
$146.51
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 145.2% above fair value
You pay
$146.51
Bear
$23.69
Fair
$59.74
Bull
$107.82
Bear
$23.69
-83.8%
FCF $5615M × 8x
Fair
$59.74
-59.2%
FCF $8021M × 11x
Bull
$107.82
-26.4%
FCF $10428M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$155.42
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $59.74 per share. Range: $23.69 (bear) to $107.82 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -84%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $155.42 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential