CON
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$25.32
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.0% above fair value
You pay
$25.32
Bear
$18.93
Fair
$23.66
Bull
$28.38
Bear
$18.93
-25.2%
$1.45 × 12x P/E
Fair
$23.66
-6.6%
$1.45 × 15x P/E
Bull
$28.38
+12.1%
$1.45 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.66 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples