CON
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$37.19
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.7% above fair value
You pay
$37.19
Bear
$15.60
Fair
$19.50
Bull
$23.40
Bear
$15.60
-58.1%
$1.30 × 12x P/E
Fair
$19.50
-47.6%
$1.30 × 15x P/E
Bull
$23.40
-37.1%
$1.30 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.3$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$38.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.30, the base-case value is $19.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.60 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples