COLM
Columbia Sportswear Company
$60.16
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.2% below fair value
You pay
$60.16
Bear
$50.23
Fair
$62.79
Bull
$75.35
Bear
$50.23
-16.5%
$4.19 × 12x P/E
Fair
$62.79
+4.4%
$4.19 × 15x P/E
Bull
$75.35
+25.2%
$4.19 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.19$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$64.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.19, the base-case value is $62.79 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.31.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $17.31 (below our primary estimate by 72%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples