COLM
Columbia Sportswear Company
$63.39
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.7% above fair value
You pay
$63.39
Bear
$50.34
Fair
$62.92
Bull
$75.51
Bear
$50.34
-20.6%
$4.19 × 12x P/E
Fair
$62.92
-0.7%
$4.19 × 15x P/E
Bull
$75.51
+19.1%
$4.19 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $63.33 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.92 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $18.40 (below our primary estimate by 71%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples