COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
$36.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.9% below fair value
You pay
$36.27
Bear
$96.76
Fair
$120.33
Bull
$141.45
Bear
$96.76
+166.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$120.33
+231.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$141.45
+290.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
5.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-8.6%
vs 6.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.33 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 134% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions