COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
$21.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 86.4% below fair value
You pay
$21.78
Bear
$130.64
Fair
$159.82
Bull
$185.73
Bear
$130.64
+499.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$159.82
+633.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$185.73
+752.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
3.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-16.8%
vs 6.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$48.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
233%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $159.82 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $48.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 233% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions